In yesterday's post I noted that the risk of a spike in VXX was quite elevated, with the needle on the VXX Spike Risk gauge approaching the red zone. Today VXX closed at 21.07 after a moderate/strong gain of +11.5%.
The term structure flattened out a bit but is still in a slight contango, producing nearly irrelevant roll yields for XIV and ZIV of +0.5% and +1.65%, respectively.
Spot VIX closed 0.1 above front month VIX futures at 16.51, making a short of VXX very risky. Given the 18% spike in VIX today there is a good probability that it will retrace some of those gains tomorrow but by no means does it have to, and a spike today does not rule out the possibility of another spike tomorrow. Generally these are the types of situations where I prefer to wait for a setup that is more predictable.
The VXX forecast for tomorrow (preview below) generally reflects a neutral bias and a reduced, but still elevated, risk of a VXX spike.