The forecasts now estimate the probability of a spike in VXX of 7% or more (previously 8% or more) for the next 2 days (previously 3 days). The changes results in:
- An overall lower spike probability for most days (due to the shorter prediction period)
- An increased spike probability when spike conditions are present (due to a lower spike definition threshold)
No changes were made to any of the Bias forecast calculations.
After changes [updated 9/18/13]: