Crushing it in 2017: +70% YTD Through April

Trading has been rather boring for the first four months of 2017, with a giant trade that was opened in XIV in early Nov 2016 carrying all the way into mid-March.

Daily equity curve for our indicators versus XIV:


Notice the lock-step of our indicators with XIV through mid-March while we enjoyed the continuation of conditions to hold XIV, including an amazing +30% return in January. Our VRP+VXX Bias kicked into cash for most of April as the market showed signs of increasing uncertainty and then moved back into a short volatility position for the end of April.

Through April, 2017 performance is as follows:
- VRP+VXX Bias: +70%
- VXX Bias: +77%
- VRP: +61%

XIV (buy-and-hold) remained in-line with VRP at +61% YTD through April.

Updated indicator statistics:


While we no longer offer auto-trading for VRP+VXX Bias, we continue to track our results via Collective2 here.

Trading Volatility+ subscribers have access to our VRP and VXX Bias indicators, our intraday indicator data, receive emails with preliminary and final change alerts for each of the indicators as well as our daily summaries, and interact with our private community of volatility traders in the forum. If interested, you can learn more about our services on our Subscribe page.

As always, each day's indicator values, buy/sell triggers, trade performance summary, and equity curves are tracked in the spreadsheets linked at the bottom of our Subscribe page. Additional information on our trading strategy and indicators can be found on our Strategy page.




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Hypothetical and Simulated Performance Disclaimer
The results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Hypothetical and backtest results do not account for any costs associated with trade commissions or subscription costs. Additional performance differences in backtests arise from the methodology of using the 4:00pm ET closing values for XIV, VXX, and ZIV as approximated trade prices for indicators that require VIX and VIX futures to settle at 4:15pm ET.


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Launch of VSTOXX Futures ETNs!

There was absolutely huge news announced in the world of volatility ETPs this week as UBS released the European counterparts for VXX and XIV.

The funds track daily performance of VSTOXX futures, where VSTOXX is the index to measure volatility of the Euro STOXX-50 Index (Europe's blue chip stock index).  EVIX is essentially the long VSTOXX play (similar to VXX,) while EXIV is the inverse VSTOXX play (similar to XIV). The UBS prospectus for the funds can be found here.

While there is some correlation between VIX and VSTOXX, I believe there is enough difference between the two that there will be a large demand for these new products. We will be looking into rebooting our VSTOXX Futures data page in the near future so stay tuned.








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Our 2016 Indicator Performance: +96%

Our indicators had a really nice 2016, with our flagship VRP+VXX Bias indicator finishing +96% and our VXX Bias +149%.

The first quarter checkpoint of +59% set a great tone for the year while our July checkpoint of +91% YTD put us close to where we finished for the year after going through a volatile third quarter. Our equity curve for 2016 using a hypothetical portfolio is as follows:



Below is how our indicators performed when we sent our trade orders through Collective2's auto-trading platform (since launch in February 2016), echoing the above equity curves.1


VRP+VXX Bias ("Trading Volatility 1")


VXX Bias:
 



2016 will go down in the books as a below average for the VRP+VXX Bias strategy's +96%, while VXX Bias's +149% ranks in the top three among all backtest years.




Updated statistics:





Values for monthly returns have been tracked along the way and published on our Strategy page.

Trading Volatility+ subscribers have access to our VRP and VXX Bias indicators, our intraday indicator data, receive emails with preliminary and final change alerts for each of the indicators as well as our daily summaries, and interact with our private community of volatility traders in the forum. If interested, you can learn more about our services on our Subscribe page.

As always, each day's indicator values, buy/sell triggers, trade performance summary, and equity curves are tracked in the spreadsheets linked at the bottom of our Subscribe page. Additional information on our trading strategy and indicators can be found on our Strategy page.


1Note: As mentioned in our previous post, you will find differences between the ideal/hypothetical indicator performance and actual trading performance for the following reasons:
- The VRP+VXX Bias indicator ("Trading Volatility 1" on C2) was launched on C2 on Feb 2, 2016.
- The VXX Bias indicator was launched on C2 on Feb 19, 2016
- Both C2 systems traded only 72%-80% of portfolio equity until April 1. After April 1, both C2 systems trade at ~97.5% portfolio equity (the ideal/hypothetical model portfolios trade at 100% equity).
- The ideal/hypothetical performance does not account for trade commissions or subscriptions costs.


------------
Hypothetical and Simulated Performance Disclaimer
The results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Hypothetical and backtest results do not account for any costs associated with trade commissions or subscription costs. Additional performance differences in backtests arise from the methodology of using the 4:00pm ET closing values for XIV, VXX, and ZIV as approximated trade prices for indicators that require VIX and VIX futures to settle at 4:15pm ET.



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