XIV Is No More

Market action on Monday this week resulted in the all-time record for a 1-day spike in VIX at 115.6%. This also caused our beloved XIV to implode and alas, it no longer exists.

SVXY, a nearly identical product managed by ProShares, managed to survive the carnage although it lost most of its value. Other inverse volatility products including ZIV, VMIN, and XIVH are still around as well. We plan to move to SVXY and continue business as usual.

Speaking of business as usual, below is our performance of our indicators through Feb 8, 2018, as auto-traded on Collective2:






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Our 2017 Indicator Performance: +126%

We had a great 2016 with our primary indicator turning in a +96% gain, but 2017 was even better with a +126% gain. It was a bit of a wild journey, however, with a political headlines and threats of nuclear war popping up to cause some pretty strong drawdowns mid-year. Our equity curve for 2017 using hypothetical portfolios is as follows:




Below is how our indicators performed when we sent our trade orders through Collective2's auto-trading platform (performance values and graphs here date back to launch in February 2016), echoing the above equity curves.1

Both our VXX Bias and VRP+VXX Bias strategies were bested by a buy-and-hold approach with XIV in 2017 as it set a new record for best annual return. However, knowing that it is not a good idea to buy and hold XIV, I believe the VRP+VXX Bias performance was still rather good and it helped us to sell when it detected trouble coming our way.




Updated statistics:


Values for monthly returns have been tracked along the way and are updated on our Strategy page as well as below.




Trading Volatility+ subscribers have access to our VRP and VXX Bias indicators, our intraday indicator data, receive emails with preliminary and final change alerts for each of the indicators as well as our daily summaries, and interact with our private community of volatility traders in the forum. If interested, you can learn more about our services on our Subscribe page.

As always, each day's indicator values, buy/sell triggers, trade performance summary, and equity curves are tracked in the spreadsheets linked at the bottom of our Subscribe page. Additional information on our trading strategy and indicators can be found on our Strategy page.

1Note: As mentioned in our previous post, you will find differences between the ideal/hypothetical indicator performance and actual trading performance for the following reasons:
- The VRP+VXX Bias indicator ("Trading Volatility 1" on C2) was launched on C2 on Feb 2, 2016.
- The VXX Bias indicator was launched on C2 on Feb 19, 2016
- Both C2 systems traded only 72%-80% of portfolio equity until April 1. After April 1, both C2 systems trade at ~97.5% portfolio equity (the ideal/hypothetical model portfolios trade at 100% equity).
- The ideal/hypothetical performance does not account for trade commissions or subscriptions costs.

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Hypothetical and Simulated Performance Disclaimer
The results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Hypothetical and backtest results do not account for any costs associated with trade commissions or subscription costs. Additional performance differences in backtests arise from the methodology of using the 4:00pm ET closing values for XIV, VXX, and ZIV as approximated trade prices for indicators that require VIX and VIX futures to settle at 4:15pm ET.


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Holiday Subscription Price Discount

We are celebrating the holiday season and an awesome trading year with major discounts to our Trading Volatility+ service!

Trading Volatility+ (billed monthly):  $200/mo   $110/mo
Trading Volatility+ (billed quarterly): $180/mo     $90/mo

The Trading Volatility+ service provides access to our proprietary indicators for monitoring volatility ETPs, with performance in 2017 that has reached triple-digit returns, as shown by third-party auto-trading tracking. And that's on the heels of a 75% gain in 2016.


Our automated signals to buy and sell XIV and VXX grew a $100,000 reference portfolio into $353,000 since launching on the Collective2 platform in Feb 2016 (actual trade data for this system, including trade date & time stamps, share quantity and trade price is tracked by, and made available, on Collective2).


Better yet, this performance was achieved with only 26 trades, meaning you don't have to spend much of your time executing trades or excessively focusing on the market.

Our automated signals are sent to subscribers via email or text, with final alerts arriving at 4:32pm ET and preliminary alerts sent at 3:46pm ET. Subscribers also have access to our Intraday Indicators on our website which display updated indicator values throughout the trading day.

For those of you waiting for a final push to subscribe to our service, this is it. Feel more comfortable trading XIV, SVXY, VXX, and UVXY in 2018 by using proven indicators.

If you'd like to learn more about our strategies, please visit our Strategy Page or contact us via email.

Thank you and have a great Holiday Season!



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YTD Performance of Our Volatility Indicator: +72.7%

While most people have been surprised to see volatility trend towards record lows in 2017, at Trading Volatility we have capitalized significantly on it.

The performance of our auto-traded "Trading Volatility 1" algorithm, which is executed and tracked by Collective2, is now at +72% year-to-date, nearly surpassing 2016's recorded return of (+75%).



Cumulatively, that's a 202% gain since we started tracking performance of our algorithm by a third party in February 2016.



The "Trading Volatility 1" system is the auto-traded version of our VRP+VXX Bias indicator which we have published daily to Trading Volatility+ subscribers for nearly five years now.

Trading Volatility+ subscribers have access to our VRP and VXX Bias indicators, our intraday indicator data, receive emails with preliminary and final change alerts for each of the indicators as well as our daily summaries, and interact with our private community of volatility traders in the forum. If interested, you can learn more about our services on our Subscribe page.

As always, each day's indicator values, buy/sell triggers, trade performance summary, and equity curves are tracked in the spreadsheets linked at the bottom of our Subscribe page. Additional information on our trading strategy and indicators can be found on our Strategy page.





Hypothetical and Simulated Performance Disclaimer
The results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Hypothetical backtest results do not account for any costs associated with trade commissions or subscription costs. Additional performance differences in backtests arise from the methodology of using the 4:00pm ET closing values for XIV, VXX, and ZIV as approximated trade prices for indicators that require VIX and VIX futures to settle at 4:15pm ET


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Crushing it in 2017: +70% YTD Through April

Trading has been rather boring for the first four months of 2017, with a giant trade that was opened in XIV in early Nov 2016 carrying all the way into mid-March.

Daily equity curve for our indicators versus XIV:


Notice the lock-step of our indicators with XIV through mid-March while we enjoyed the continuation of conditions to hold XIV, including an amazing +30% return in January. Our VRP+VXX Bias kicked into cash for most of April as the market showed signs of increasing uncertainty and then moved back into a short volatility position for the end of April.

Through April, 2017 performance is as follows:
- VRP+VXX Bias: +70%
- VXX Bias: +77%
- VRP: +61%

XIV (buy-and-hold) remained in-line with VRP at +61% YTD through April.

Updated indicator statistics:


While we no longer offer auto-trading for VRP+VXX Bias, we continue to track our results via Collective2 here.

Trading Volatility+ subscribers have access to our VRP and VXX Bias indicators, our intraday indicator data, receive emails with preliminary and final change alerts for each of the indicators as well as our daily summaries, and interact with our private community of volatility traders in the forum. If interested, you can learn more about our services on our Subscribe page.

As always, each day's indicator values, buy/sell triggers, trade performance summary, and equity curves are tracked in the spreadsheets linked at the bottom of our Subscribe page. Additional information on our trading strategy and indicators can be found on our Strategy page.




------------
Hypothetical and Simulated Performance Disclaimer
The results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Hypothetical and backtest results do not account for any costs associated with trade commissions or subscription costs. Additional performance differences in backtests arise from the methodology of using the 4:00pm ET closing values for XIV, VXX, and ZIV as approximated trade prices for indicators that require VIX and VIX futures to settle at 4:15pm ET.


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