Daily Forecast

The gauges below provide the most recent reading for each of our indicators.  For more information on the indicators please visit our Strategy page. Indicators are automatically updated at the end of each trading day at 4:33pm ET.

Indicator data is delayed 1 week. Subscribe to Trading Volatility+ to view current values.

VXX Bias:
VRP  (for XIV):
ZIV Bias:


BiasTM: The current bias of VXX and ZIV as determined by the current shape of the VIX futures term structure and short-term trend indicators. A more negative reading means a stronger negative bias ("headwind") for that security. A more positive reading means a stronger positive bias ("tailwind"). Values from +10 to -10 represent +/- 4 standard deviations of values since March 2004.

VRP: The VRP (Volatility Risk Premium) signal compares forward implied volatility (VIX) with historical volatility. A positive reading indicates a buy signal for XIV while a change to negative indicates a buy signal for VXX. The magnitude of the reading is irrelevant for our purposes.

Indicator data is delayed 1 week. Subscribe to Trading Volatility+ to view current data.


Forecast Accuracy
The charts below contain plots of historical indicator values using our algorithms, compared with performance of VXX, XIV, and ZIV (Indicator values use the left axis; Price uses the right axis).




Spike Risk: The probability of a rise of 7% or more in VXX over the next two days. Values below 25% indicate a low risk of a spike in VXX. Values between 40% and 60% are moderate risk. Values above 60% are high risk. See historical values below (Forecast values use the left axis; Percent change uses the right axis)


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