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VRP (for XIV):
BiasTM: The current bias of VXX and ZIV as determined by the current shape of the VIX futures term structure and short-term trend indicators. A more negative reading means a stronger negative bias ("headwind") for that security. A more positive reading means a stronger positive bias ("tailwind"). Values from +10 to -10 represent +/- 4 standard deviations of values since March 2004.
VRP: The VRP (Volatility Risk Premium) signal compares forward implied volatility (VIX) with historical volatility. The common convention is that a positive reading indicates a buy signal for XIV while a change to negative indicates a buy signal for VXX. The magnitude of the reading is irrelevant for our purposes.
Note: Our indicator data (also sometimes referred to within the site as "Daily Forecasts") takes information about current market characteristics and places it in context of historical data points using mathematical functions that provide insight into what specific ETFs & ETNs may do based on the definitions for movement as defined within the relevant ETP prospectus and historical data. Risks and other factors as defined with each ETP prospectus may also impact the price of the ETP. The indicators should not be construed as a prediction of any sort.
Indicator data is delayed 1 week. Subscribe to Trading Volatility+ to view current data.
The charts below contain plots of historical indicator values compared with performance of VXX, XIV, and ZIV (Indicator values use the left axis; Price uses the right axis).
Spike Risk: The probability of a rise of 7% or more in VXX over the next two days. Values below 25% indicate a low risk of a spike in VXX. Values between 40% and 60% are moderate risk. Values above 60% are high risk. See historical values below (Forecast values use the left axis; Percent change uses the right axis)